USTR opens Section 301 four-year review window; Commerce stacks new AD/CVD cases on China air compressors, tin mill, and aluminum foil from three continents

Executive Summary

As of May 11, 2026, the most consequential development for U.S. importers is USTR's formal initiation of the second statutory four-year review of the 2018 Section 301 China actions (FR Doc 2026-08806), opening a 60-day window starting May 7, 2026 for domestic industries to request continuation of duties covering roughly $370 billion in annual imports from China. The Tariff Tracker Desk reads this as the single most money-at-risk regulatory event of Q2 2026: if any beneficiary industry petitions in the May 7-July 5 window (List 1) or the June 24-August 22 window (List 2), the corresponding tariffs survive automatically while USTR proceeds to a second-phase review.

Commerce also stacked three new aluminum-foil findings in one week — Brazil (FR Doc 2026-09017, prelim AD), Oman (FR Doc 2026-08780, prelim AD, OARC), and Turkey (FR Doc 2026-08951, prelim CVD) — alongside fresh AD/CVD on air compressors from China, Malaysia, Vietnam under HS 8414.80.16 (FR Doc 2026-08683) and a CVD initiation on tin mill products from China (FR Doc 2026-08744). Air compressor preliminary determinations are due June 15, 2026.

Macro confirms pricing pressure. The Import Price Index reached 144.6 in March 2026 (vs. 142.2 in January, +1.7% three-month), PPI Manufacturing accelerated to 265.266 from 253.333 in January (+4.7% three-month), and the trade deficit widened to -$60.3B in March from -$57.8B in February. The Trade-Weighted Dollar slipped to 118.39 on May 1, 2026 — removing one natural offset to higher landed cost.

This week, you should: (1) Pull 2025 entry summaries by HTS chapter for 2018 Section 301 List 1/List 2 imports — engage by July 5, 2026 on List 1; (2) If sourcing aluminum foil from Brazil/Oman/Turkey, confirm cash-deposit rates with your broker and prepare to switch to Korea, Indonesia, or domestic mills within 30 days; (3) If importing air compressors under HS 8414.80.16 from CN/MY/VN, file an ITC entry of appearance before June 15, 2026.

The Week In Numbers

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+0.8% MoM IPI and +3.1% MoM PPI Manufacturing confirm pre-summer restocking is colliding with rising trade-remedy duties. As noted in the HS Code Watch List below, duty pressure concentrates in aluminum, steel, and specialty chemicals — PPI subindexes 200-400 bps hotter than headline.

Key Signals This Week

Signal 1: USTR opens second four-year review of 2018 Section 301 China actions

• What happened: USTR FR Doc 2026-08806 (May 6, 2026) initiates the second statutory four-year review of the 2018 Section 301 actions. Continuation windows: May 7-July 5, 2026 (List 1) and June 24-August 22, 2026 (List 2).
• Who is affected: Importers of Chinese goods covered by Section 301 — ~$370B annual imports, HTS chapters 28, 29, 38, 39, 73, 84, 85, 87, 90.
• Estimated financial impact: Continued 7.5-25% duties. A $20M covered importer faces $1.5M-$5M annual exposure.
• Recommended action: Identify top-10 301-covered HTS subheadings; check for domestic petitioner; pre-draft second-phase exclusion comment.
• Deadline or urgency: First window closes July 5, 2026.
• Risk if ignored: Unopposed continuation auto-continues; importers forfeit the only formal opportunity until 2030.

Signal 2: AD/CVD investigations on air compressors from China, Malaysia, Vietnam

• What happened: ITC instituted prelim AD/CVD investigations 701-TA-794-796 and 731-TA-1790-1792 on air compressors under HS 8414.80.16 (FR Doc 2026-08683, May 5, 2026).
• Who is affected: Importers of stationary/portable compressors >0.5 hp — HVAC OEMs, tool distributors, rental fleets (United Rentals, Sunbelt, Herc).
• Estimated financial impact: Historical AD 30-150% (CN), 5-30% (VN), 8-25% (MY). A $5M Chinese line faces $1.5M-$7.5M deposit liability.
• Recommended action: File ITC entry of appearance by June 1; inventory SKUs by COO; RFQ Korea/Taiwan/India/Italy.
• Deadline or urgency: ITC preliminary determination due June 15, 2026.
• Risk if ignored: Affirmative prelim triggers cash deposits; critical-circumstances pulls liability back 90 days.

Signal 3: Aluminum foil triple-front — Brazil, Oman, Turkey

• What happened: Prelim AD on foil from Brazil (FR Doc 2026-09017) and Oman/OARC (FR Doc 2026-08780); prelim CVD on Turkey (FR Doc 2026-08951). All May 6-7, 2026.
• Who is affected: HTS 7607.11/19 importers — Berry Global, Sonoco, Amcor; foodservice/pharma packaging; HVAC duct foil.
• Estimated financial impact: Prelim AD margins 4-30% typical for foil cases. Three alternatives hit simultaneously.
• Recommended action: Pull 2025 entries by COO; quote Korea, Indonesia, India, US mills (Novelis, JW Aluminum) by May 25; re-price with 10-15% buffer.
• Deadline: Cash deposits effective on FR publication; finals Q3-Q4 2026.
• Risk if ignored: 4-30 ppt margin compression on existing FOB contracts.

Signal 4: Tin mill products from China — CVD investigation initiated

• What happened: Commerce initiated CVD on tin mill products from China (FR Doc 2026-08744, May 5, 2026) — tinplate, ECCS, tin-free steel.
• Who is affected: Can-makers (Crown Holdings, Sonoco, Ball aerosol), food canners, paint/aerosol converters — HTS 7210.11, 7210.12, 7212.10.
• Estimated financial impact: 2024 cases yielded CVD 2.7-7.0% with AD 28-122%. Model 35-120% combined if AD follows.
• Recommended action: Lock Q3-Q4 supply by May 25 from POSCO, Nippon Steel/JFE, Tata IJmuiden, Cleveland-Cliffs Weirton.
• Deadline or urgency: CVD prelim ~September 2026.
• Risk if ignored: Can-makers in Chinese tinplate contracts absorb full duty without customer pass-through.

Signal 5: Wood mouldings sunset reviews — China duties continue

• What happened: Final sunset reviews on wood mouldings/millwork from China (FR Docs 2026-08736 AD, 2026-08737 CVD, May 5, 2026) — duties continue.
• Who is affected: HTS 4409.10 importers — Home Depot, Lowe's, kitchen-cabinet OEMs.
• Estimated financial impact: AD 4.49-289.10% + CVD 20.56-194.90% locked in 5 more years.
• Recommended action: Continue sourcing from Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brazil; verify documentation against circumvention.
• Deadline or urgency: Effective on publication.
• Risk if ignored: Chinese-origin entries face full AD+CVD; circumvention can capture VN/MY routing.

Signal 6: Tetrahydrofurfuryl alcohol from China — AD order continued

• What happened: Commerce continued the AD order on THFA from China (FR Doc 2026-08739, May 5, 2026).
• Who is affected: Specialty chemicals, agrochemicals, pharma intermediates — HTS 2932.13.
• Estimated financial impact: AD margins of 126.99-203.51% continue 5 more years.
• Recommended action: Source from Vencorex (FR), Penn A Kem (US), or Indian producers; renegotiate within 60 days.
• Deadline or urgency: Immediate.
• Risk if ignored: Continued cash-deposit liability on Chinese entries.

HS Code Watch List

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Section 301 dominates. Based on the 2022 pattern, at least 80% of currently-tariffed Chinese HTS subheadings will see a continuation request. Do not budget for tariff relief in Q4 2026.

Product Category Deep Dives

Category 1: Aluminum Foil (HTS 7607)

Current duty (as of May 11, 2026): 0% MFN; existing China AD 49.83-129.95%; Section 232 25% on non-exempt aluminum.

What's changing: Prelim dumping on Brazilian/Omani foil (FR Docs 2026-09017, 2026-08780); subsidies on Turkish foil (FR Doc 2026-08951). Finals Q3-Q4 2026.

Price impact: Midpoint margins 9% (Brazil), 11% (Oman), 7% CVD (Turkey) push $3.50/kg to $3.82, $3.89, $3.75 — 200-380 bps margin compression for a 15%-margin converter.

Sourcing alternatives:

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Action checklist: (1) Pull 2025 HTS 7607.11/19 entries by COO. (2) Quote Korea/Indonesia/US mills by May 25. (3) Verify supplier-specific vs. all-others rate. (4) Update landed-cost models with 5-15% contingency.

Category 2: Air Compressors (HTS 8414.80.16)

Current duty (as of May 11, 2026): MFN 2.7%; Section 301 List 2 (25%) on China; no AD/CVD on MY/VN.

What's changing: ITC AD/CVD on CN/MY/VN (FR Doc 2026-08683). ITC prelim due June 15, 2026.

Price impact: Midpoint margins (65% CN, 17% VN, 16% MY) push $480 FOB 5-hp landed cost from $650 to $1,000 / $785 / $780, raising rental hourly economics 8-12%.

Sourcing alternatives:

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Action checklist: (1) File ITC entry by June 1. (2) Model critical-circumstances on open POs. (3) RFQ Korea/Taiwan by May 20. (4) Reprice rental rates effective Q4 2026.

Category 3: Tinplate / Tin Mill Products (HTS 7210, 7212)

Current duty (as of May 11, 2026): 0% MFN; Section 232 25% steel; prior closed cases yielded AD 2.69-122.52% and CVD 2.71-89.06% on China.

What's changing: CVD initiation on China (FR Doc 2026-08744, May 5). Companion AD typically follows within 20 days.

Price impact: CVD 12% plus future AD 65% raises $1,150/MT ECCS to $1,438/MT (CVD only) or $2,184/MT (full stack) — un-passable for can OEMs on annual contracts.

Sourcing alternatives:

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Action checklist: (1) Lock Q3-Q4 supply by May 25 with Korea/Japan/Netherlands. (2) File product-exclusion within 30 days if no domestic substitute. (3) Evaluate HDPE/aluminum substitutes for elastic SKUs. (4) Embed steel pass-through in next co-pack cycle.

Strategic Analysis

The development: USTR's initiation of the second four-year review of the 2018 Section 301 China actions (FR Doc 2026-08806, May 6, 2026) is the formal start of a regulatory process that will determine whether roughly $370 billion of annual U.S.-China trade continues to face 7.5-25% Section 301 duties through at least 2030. The underlying actions — List 1 effective July 6, 2018 ($34B at 25%) and List 2 effective August 23, 2018 ($16B at 25%) — are the original architecture of the U.S.-China trade war; Lists 3 and 4A expanded coverage later. Section 307(c) of the Trade Act of 1974 requires USTR to terminate trade actions unless beneficiary industries request continuation.

Historical parallel: The first four-year review ran May 2022-September 2024. USTR received continuation requests from over 400 domestic-industry representatives, covering substantially all originally-tariffed HTS subheadings. USTR continued all tariffs and proceeded to a second-phase review. The May 2024 second-phase result raised tariffs on 14 strategic categories — EVs 25% to 100%, EV batteries 7.5% to 25%, syringes 0% to 50%, semiconductors 25% to 50% by 2025. Of 429 exclusions extended during the first review, fewer than 35% survived to the second. A single petitioner is sufficient.

Stakeholder map: Pushing continuation — AISI, Aluminum Association, ACC, NAM, SIA, USW, AFL-CIO, Coalition for a Prosperous America. Opposing or seeking exclusions — National Retail Federation, CTA, AAFA, National Foreign Trade Council, U.S. Chamber China Center. Political actors: USTR Greer, House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee, Senate Finance International Trade Subcommittee.

Supply chain implications: First — duty continuity on 301 imports. Second — Mexican FDI accelerates 15-25% YoY in Q3-Q4 2026. Third — circumvention enforcement intensifies; we forecast 18-25 new inquiries in 2026-2027 vs. 12 in 2024-2025. Fourth — non-China sources (Vietnam, India, Thailand, Mexico) reprice +5-12%. Fifth — Chinese producers expand MX/VN FDI, complicating enforcement.

Three scenarios for affected importers:

Best case (20%): Consumer-goods subheadings in HTS chapters 64, 95, 42 — no domestic petitioner — auto-terminate at the four-year anniversary. 8-15% of subheadings.

Base case (60%): Continuation covers 85-95% of subheadings. Second-phase review Q4 2026-Q1 2027 raises tariffs on 8-15 strategic categories in a Q2 2027 final. Exclusion process opens late 2026; historical grant rate 5-12%.

Worst case (20%): Universal continuation plus 2024-style expansion. At-risk categories: critical minerals processing, solar wafers/cells, EV components, robotics, drones, ship-to-shore cranes. Model +25-50 ppt additional duty by Q3 2027.

The contrarian take: Consensus says this is a procedural rubber stamp. The real question is what USTR does with second-phase authority once continuation locks in. The 2024 second-phase showed USTR will raise rates well above 25%. The 2026 cycle aligns with midterms; expect aggressive lobbying for rate increases on labor-intensive categories (apparel, footwear, simple electronics) where consumer impact disperses and producer benefit concentrates. The contrarian conclusion: the four-year review is more dangerous than the original 2018 action. Importers assuming 2018 rates are a ceiling are mispricing risk.

Compliance Deadlines Calendar

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CBP PRA-renewal notices (FR Docs 2026-09214 through 2026-09221, 2026-09101 through 2026-09106) are routine; CTPAT/ACE/duty-allowance importers should comment to prevent incremental burden expansion.

China LATAM EU APAC Trade Monitor

China: Commerce continued AD on THFA (FR Doc 2026-08739) and wood mouldings (FR Docs 2026-08736, 2026-08737), opened CVD on tin mill (FR Doc 2026-08744), continued prelim review on wood mouldings (FR Doc 2026-09218), and postponed CVD prelims on truck bed covers (FR Doc 2026-08949) and graphite electrodes (CN/IN) (FR Doc 2026-08952). USTR's Section 301 four-year review (FR Doc 2026-08806) is the dominant Q2 signal. Expect aggressive enforcement — Commerce typically opens 18-25 new China AD/CVD cases per review year.

Latin America: The aluminum foil from Brazil prelim AD (FR Doc 2026-09017) is the second aluminum-product AD against Brazil in 18 months. The air compressors case (FR Doc 2026-08683) names Vietnam and Malaysia but not Mexico — Mexican assembly remains within USMCA tolerance. Mexican industrial-equipment FDI in Q1 2026: $1.8 billion (Bajio/Monterrey), with ABB, Atlas Copco, Ingersoll Rand expanding compressor operations. Expect a circumvention inquiry on Mexican-assembled compressors within 18 months if Mexican HS 8414.80.16 exports rise >35% YoY.

EU: Commerce's preliminary not-dumped finding on strontium chromate from France (FR Doc 2026-09220, SNCZ) is a rare bright spot for European exporters. The EU's CBAM entered its definitive period January 2026 and will impose carbon-equivalent levies from 2027. Tata IJmuiden and ThyssenKrupp Rasselstein remain critical tinplate alternatives but EU mill capacity is fully booked through Q3 2026.

APAC: Key actions: welded stainless pressure pipe from India (FR Doc 2026-08953, prelim AD - Suncity), aluminum foil from Oman (FR Doc 2026-08780, OARC), thermal paper from Korea (FR Doc 2026-09132, not dumped - Hansol), CTL carbon steel plate from Korea (FR Doc 2026-09131, below NV - adverse for POSCO, Hyundai Steel), and Stilbenic OBA from Taiwan (FR Doc 2026-08957, final AD - Teh Fong Min). With MY/VN now named in air compressors, the credible China-alternative source list narrows to Thailand, Indonesia, India, Taiwan. Thai industrial-equipment exports to the U.S. rose 22% YoY in Q1 2026.

What Were Watching Next Week

1. May 12-14, 2026 — Aluminum foil preliminary determinations publish

• What's happening: Brazil/Oman/Turkey company-specific rate tables expected.
• Why it matters: Cash-deposit rates take effect on FR publication.
• Prepare: Schedule a broker call May 14-15 to confirm deposit funding on in-transit entries.

2. May 13, 2026 — BLS April PPI release

• What's happening: April PPI Manufacturing prints against trend 253.3 (Jan) → 257.2 (Feb) → 265.3 (Mar).
• Why it matters: A fourth consecutive rise signals structural pass-through and informs June FOMC.
• Prepare: Above 268 = renewed pressure to defend tariffs; below 263 = exemption coalition gains traction.

3. May 14, 2026 — BLS April Import Price Index release

• What's happening: April IPI prints against March's 144.6 (+0.8% MoM).
• Why it matters: Three consecutive rises confirm importers absorbing the tariff stack, weakening narrow-exclusion arguments.
• Prepare: Pull top-10 SKU landed-cost trends; align with broker on exclusion candidates.

4. Week of May 18, 2026 — First Section 301 continuation requests surface

• What's happening: AISI, Aluminum Association, SIA likely file within 10-15 days of the May 7 window opening.
• Why it matters: Once an industry petitions, covered HTS subheadings lock in for second-phase review.
• Prepare: Set alerts for "Section 301 continuation"; pre-draft exclusion justifications using the 2022-2024 template.

5. May 15-22, 2026 — ITC pre-preliminary on Air Compressors

• What's happening: ITC importer questionnaires and supplier outreach ahead of the June 15 prelim.
• Why it matters: Non-response triggers adverse-facts-available rates.
• Prepare: Designate a customs-compliance lead; pre-pull 2023-2025 HS 8414.80.16 data.