De minimis ends for every country: proclamation R1-2026-03829 meets a wall of new steel duties

Executive Summary

The single biggest money-at-risk development this week is a Presidential Proclamation (FR Doc R1-2026-03829) continuing the suspension of duty-free de minimis treatment for goods from all countries. For every e-commerce importer running a DDP model under the $800 Section 321 threshold, landed cost just went up on essentially every shipment. The Proclamation reprints and reinforces the end of Section 321 de minimis access previously rolled out country-by-country, and its extension to all countries on a sustained basis converts what some importers still treated as a disruption they could route around into a structural change in cross-border e-commerce economics.

Add to that the accelerating expansion of the steel trade case universe. This week the ITC instituted Austria, Taiwan, and UAE into the OCTG investigations (FR Doc 2026-06689, Inv. Nos. 701-TA-791 and 731-TA-1779-1781), scheduled expedited five-year reviews for OCTG from China (FR Doc 2026-06843) and Non-Oriented Electrical Steel from six countries (FR Doc 2026-06576), and Commerce issued preliminary AD margins on hot-rolled steel flat from Japan (FR Doc 2026-07008) and preliminary CVD results on hot-rolled steel flat from Korea (FR Doc 2026-07001). Steel and OCTG importers now face at least four simultaneous duty-exposure events within a 12-month window.

On the finished-goods side, the ITC opened a Section 337 investigation into display devices, streaming players, and components (FR Doc 2026-06580), threatening exclusion orders that can land faster and cut deeper than any tariff rate. Consumer electronics importers should not wait for a final determination to begin contingency sourcing. Meanwhile, the macro backdrop argues against optimism: Import Price Index hit 144.0 in February, a +1.27% monthly jump (FRED: IR), PPI Manufacturing rose to 257.34 (+1.55% MoM) (FRED: PCUOMFGOMFG), and the goods-and-services trade deficit widened to -$57.3 billion in February (FRED: BOPGSTB), up from -$54.7B in January. Price pressure and the duty pipeline are rising in unison.

This week, you should: (1) Treat every sub-$800 parcel from your international 3PLs as fully dutiable and recompute your DDP landed-cost models; (2) If you import OCTG, hot-rolled steel flat, NOES, PC strand, aluminum sheet, citric acid, MSG, THFA, matchbooks, or lysine, pull entry-summary data for the past 12 months and identify the supplier+HS-code combinations that will be retroactively exposed to preliminary or sunset duties; (3) If you source display devices or streaming players for US retail, verify whether any component or firmware stack is named in the InnoTV Labs Section 337 complaint and pre-qualify a non-Respondent supplier now.

The Week In Numbers

Below is the weekly data dashboard. Arrows and signals are derived from the underlying FRED series and Federal Register flow this week. The single most important takeaway: every inflation gauge is rising at the same time the duty pipeline is expanding.

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Three-month direction matters here. Import Price Index has risen in each of the last four published observations (140.8 → 141.2 → 141.4 → 142.2 → 144.0), a clean four-month uptrend. PPI Manufacturing has now printed above 253 for three straight months. The dollar is drifting weaker off its end-of-March peak, which removes one of the cushions that had been offsetting tariff pass-through. Taken together, importers should expect margin compression to continue accelerating through Q2, and should not budget on the assumption that FX strength will absorb new duties.

Key Signals This Week

Six high-priority signals from this week's Federal Register flow. Each is written to be actionable Monday morning.

Signal 1 — De Minimis suspension extended to all countries

• What happened: The White House published a Presidential Proclamation (FR Doc R1-2026-03829) Continuing the Suspension of Duty-Free De Minimis Treatment for All Countries, reissued in the Federal Register this week. This is the operative document cementing the end of Section 321 as a blanket benefit for cross-border e-commerce.
• Who is affected: Every seller using a DDP or direct-to-consumer international fulfillment model below the $800 threshold. That includes Amazon FBA sellers using Chinese 3PLs, Shopify merchants shipping from fulfillment nodes in Mexico and Canada, fashion and accessories sellers on Temu/Shein-style logistics, and US brands using offshore 3PLs for replenishment.
• Estimated financial impact: For a typical low-ticket e-commerce parcel previously entering duty-free, the incremental landed-cost hit ranges from 7.5% to 35% depending on HS classification, plus a fixed per-entry MPF/HMF overlay once small parcels are forced into Type 01/11 formal entry procedures. On a $1M/month D2C flow, that can be $75,000–$350,000 in new duty exposure per month.
• Recommended action: (1) Re-price every SKU on DDP routes this week and re-issue landed cost sheets to the finance team; (2) audit your customs broker's classification accuracy — de minimis importers have historically underinvested in HTS precision because it did not matter; (3) evaluate whether consolidated sea-FCL into a US 3PL now beats small-parcel airfreight economics; (4) if you were invoicing end customers as "duties included" without actually paying duty, fix your invoicing language and consult trade counsel immediately.
• Deadline: The Proclamation is already operative; Customs enforcement is ongoing.
• Risk if ignored: Unrecoverable duty liability, Section 1592 penalty exposure, and consumer refund demand for the delta between advertised "duty-included" pricing and the real cost of delivery.

Signal 2 — OCTG trade case universe just doubled

• What happened: The ITC instituted preliminary AD/CVD investigations into Oil Country Tubular Goods from Austria, Taiwan, and UAE (FR Doc 2026-06689, Inv. Nos. 701-TA-791 and 731-TA-1779-1781), while separately scheduling expedited five-year reviews of the existing AD and CVD orders on OCTG from China (FR Doc 2026-06843).
• Who is affected: Oilfield services, upstream E&P operators, steel service centers, mid-stream pipe distributors, and anyone specifying API 5CT casing and tubing. HTS exposure centers on HS 7304.29, 7304.39, 7305.20, and 7306.29.
• Estimated financial impact: Preliminary AD margins in past OCTG cases have ranged from single-digits to 99.14% (Taiwan and Korea historical precedent). Assume a planning range of 15–60% provisional duty on Austrian, Taiwanese, and Emirati-origin OCTG imports if affirmative preliminary determinations issue.
• Recommended action: (1) Pull 12 months of OCTG import history by manufacturer and mill certificate; (2) request mill-of-melt-and-pour certification in every PO going forward; (3) pre-qualify a USA-origin or USMCA-origin backup mill for at least 30% of annualized volume; (4) if you already source from a China-origin mill, assume the China order will be continued (sunset reviews almost always reaffirm existing orders) and plan accordingly.
• Deadline: Preliminary ITC determination on Austria/Taiwan/UAE expected within ~45 days of institution; expedited China sunset determination within ~120 days.
• Risk if ignored: Retroactive duty liability on in-transit shipments if a preliminary affirmative determination triggers suspension of liquidation.

Signal 3 — Hot-rolled steel flat: dual preliminary determinations

• What happened: Commerce issued preliminary AD results for hot-rolled steel flat from Japan (FR Doc 2026-07008), finding that one of two producer/exporters sold at prices below normal value during POR October 1, 2023 to September 30, 2024, and preliminary CVD results for hot-rolled steel flat from Korea (FR Doc 2026-07001), finding countervailable subsidies during the 2023 calendar year POR.
• Who is affected: Steel service centers, automotive stampers, appliance OEMs, construction structural buyers, and any importer of flat-rolled coil covered by HS 7208.10 through 7208.54.
• Estimated financial impact: Preliminary AD/CVD cash deposit rates on hot-rolled steel have historically ranged from 0% (no-dump findings) to 45%+. Treat exposure as 4–15% on Japan flows and 1–8% additive on Korea flows until final results publish.
• Recommended action: (1) Identify the exact Japanese exporter you buy from and check whether it is the dumping producer or the rescinded producer; (2) update letters of credit and customs bond sizing to cover the potential deposit rate; (3) negotiate a duty-split clause into any Q3 2026 blanket order before mills pass through the delta; (4) if your material cert chains are weak, escalate to internal audit now, because Commerce is increasingly drilling into producer-to-exporter identity in these reviews.
• Deadline: Final results typically within 120 days of preliminary publication; comment periods much sooner.
• Risk if ignored: Paying the full preliminary deposit rate without filing scope or separate-rate arguments you are actually entitled to.

Signal 4 — Section 337 complaint: display devices and streaming players

• What happened: The ITC instituted an investigation of Certain Display Devices, Streaming Players, and Components Thereof (FR Doc 2026-06580) on a complaint filed by InnoTV Labs, LLC of Las Vegas, alleging infringement of certain patent claims. Section 337 targets importation, sale for importation, and post-importation sale.
• Who is affected: Retailers and importers of budget and mid-tier TVs, streaming sticks, digital signage displays, and any OEM-rebadge TV product originating from any country, because Section 337 exclusion orders are global, not country-specific.
• Estimated financial impact: If the ITC issues a Limited Exclusion Order or General Exclusion Order, named respondents' products become un-importable at the port of entry. For a category SKU with $5M annual wholesale revenue, a six-month exclusion equals roughly $2.5M of unrecoverable sell-through unless replacement inventory is pre-staged.
• Recommended action: (1) Retain Section 337 counsel this week if you are a respondent or a downstream importer; (2) read the complaint to identify the accused technology (patent family) and audit your SKU portfolio for overlap; (3) pre-qualify an alternate ODM whose design clearly does not practice the asserted claims; (4) push at least 45 days of safety stock through customs before a possible preliminary exclusion order.
• Deadline: ITC target date for completion is typically 16 months from institution; a preliminary remedial order can arrive sooner.
• Risk if ignored: Containers stopped at the port, regardless of contract.

Signal 5 — Sunset review wall: MSG, THFA, PC strand, matchbooks, NOES

• What happened: Commerce finalized expedited sunset reviews this week on MSG from China and Indonesia (FR Doc 2026-06928), Tetrahydrofurfuryl Alcohol from China (FR Doc 2026-06912), PC Strand from Brazil, India, Mexico, Korea, and Thailand (FR Doc 2026-07003), PC Strand from Japan (FR Doc 2026-07002), PC Strand from India on the CVD side (FR Doc 2026-06998), and Commodity Matchbooks from India (FR Docs 2026-06916 and 2026-06921). The ITC also scheduled expedited five-year reviews on NOES from China, Germany, Japan, Korea, Sweden, and Taiwan (FR Doc 2026-06576).
• Who is affected: Food ingredient importers (MSG), specialty chemical buyers (THFA), prestressed concrete manufacturers and civil-works contractors (PC strand), specialty electrical steel fabricators and motor/transformer OEMs (NOES), and packaging buyers (matchbooks).
• Recommended action: In every expedited sunset review, Commerce's default finding is that revocation would likely lead to continuation or recurrence of dumping at existing margins — plan for the orders to remain in force for another five years.
• Risk if ignored: Discovering in Q3 that a procurement contract you priced assuming order revocation now carries 15–150% duty exposure.

HS Code Watch List

A consolidated priority table of HS codes driven by this week's notices. Priorities reflect both duty exposure and decision-window urgency.

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As noted in Signal 2, the OCTG rows are the single highest-priority rows in the entire table because they combine new-country institution, an existing China order review, and a compressed ITC schedule.

Product Category Deep Dives

Three major categories warrant standalone treatment this week: (1) OCTG and downstream oilfield steel, (2) Flat-rolled carbon and alloy steel, and (3) Cross-border e-commerce under the new de minimis regime.

Deep Dive 1 — Oil Country Tubular Goods

• Current duty structure: Existing AD orders on OCTG from China (original case from 2010) have applied cash deposit rates in the range of 29.89% up to 99.14% depending on producer, layered with CVD rates. New Austria, Taiwan, and UAE investigations start with MFN as the baseline, layered with potential Section 232 derivative steel duties where applicable.
• What's changing: Institution of three new-country AD/CVD cases (FR Doc 2026-06689) plus an expedited five-year sunset review on China (FR Doc 2026-06843) within the same week. The industrial logic is consolidation of the protective wall around US OCTG producers such as Tenaris US, U.S. Steel Tubular, Vallourec Star, TMK IPSCO, and Welded Tube of Canada. The petitioning coalition historically includes the American Iron and Steel Institute and the OCTG producer caucus.
• Price impact model: On a base case of a 25% provisional AD duty on Austria/Taiwan/UAE OCTG imports landing Q3 2026, assuming 35% import share for those three origins combined, the weighted-average landed cost uplift is roughly 8.75% for a non-substituting buyer. If China order is continued and buyers re-route to Southeast Asia, expect circumvention inquiries to follow within 12 months — this is the pattern from the 2014-2018 cycle.
• Sourcing alternatives matrix:

Origin	Duty Status	Lead Time	Capacity	Quality Notes

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• Action checklist:

1. This week: request mill-of-melt certification on every open PO.

2. Within 14 days: model a 25% / 50% / 75% duty scenario on Austria, Taiwan, and UAE supply.

3. Within 30 days: pre-qualify a USMCA backup mill for 30% of volume.

4. Within 60 days: file a comment in the ITC preliminary phase if your sourcing is materially at stake.

5. Ongoing: track ITC Inv. Nos. 701-TA-791 and 731-TA-1779-1781 docket entries weekly.

Deep Dive 2 — Flat-rolled carbon and alloy steel

• Current duty structure: Multiple legacy AD/CVD orders on hot-rolled steel flat from Japan, Korea, Turkey, Brazil, Australia, Netherlands, and the UK, layered with Section 232 tariffs and derivative-article coverage.
• What's changing: Commerce preliminarily found one of two Japanese producers dumped during the 2023-2024 POR (FR Doc 2026-07008), and that Korean producers received countervailable subsidies during 2023 (FR Doc 2026-07001). Both decisions refresh cash deposit rates for the respective producers going forward. Separately, Commerce issued final results on common alloy aluminum sheet from Türkiye (AD FR Doc 2026-06925 and CVD FR Doc 2026-06878).
• Price impact model: Assume a 6% weighted-average uplift on Japan-origin hot-rolled coil and 2.5% uplift on Korea-origin CVD exposure until final results publish. If you buy a 50-50 mix from the two countries at $900/ton, blended landed cost moves to roughly $938/ton.
• Sourcing alternatives matrix:

Origin	Duty Status	Lead Time	Capacity	Quality Notes

|---|---|---|---|---|

• Action checklist:

1. Verify producer identity inside every coil certificate — Commerce drilled into this distinction this week.

2. Rebuild your duty deposit calculator with the new preliminary rates.

3. Push for price-adjustment clauses on Q3/Q4 blanket orders.

4. Evaluate whether Mexican or Canadian supply displaces at least one Asian shipment per month.

Deep Dive 3 — Cross-border e-commerce under the new de minimis regime

• Current duty structure: Historically, Section 321 permitted duty-free entry of parcels valued at up to $800 per person per day. Effective under Proclamation R1-2026-03829, that benefit is suspended for all countries of origin.
• What's changing: Every entry must now clear under Type 01 (consumption) or Type 11 (informal) with full duty calculation, MPF, and HMF where applicable. The MPF minimum alone is $32.71 per formal entry, which crushes the economics of single-parcel micro-shipments.
• Price impact model: For a $35 retail price apparel SKU sourced from China at $9 FOB, the historical D2C DDP model paid $0 duty and minimal ancillary fees. Under the new regime, assume 37.5% combined Section 301 + MFN + Section 232 derivative + MPF on dutiable value, pushing COGS to roughly $12.38 — a 37% landed-cost increase before freight reoptimization.
• Sourcing alternatives matrix:

Strategy	Duty Status	Lead Time	Setup Cost	Trade-offs

|---|---|---|---|---|

• Action checklist:

1. Re-quote every SKU this week.

2. Fix invoicing language to remove "duties included" promises you can no longer honor.

3. Evaluate switching at least one product line to a US-3PL bulk import model.

4. File for FTZ admission on slow-moving SKUs.

5. Audit HTS classification accuracy — misclassification now has real cost.

Strategic Analysis

The centerpiece this week is the extension of the de minimis suspension to all countries via Presidential Proclamation R1-2026-03829. This is the first edition of Tariff Tracker in which that policy can be treated as a settled fact rather than a contested rollout. The strategic implications deserve a full treatment because they are larger than any individual AD/CVD case in this issue, and because they reshape the competitive structure of US e-commerce itself.

The development. Section 321 of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended, created the de minimis threshold that allowed parcels under $800 in fair retail value to enter the United States free of duty. For most of the last decade, that threshold was used primarily as an administrative convenience. Around 2020, however, it became the operational backbone of a cross-border e-commerce model in which offshore 3PLs shipped individual consumer parcels directly to US doorsteps, fully avoiding the tariff stack that would otherwise apply to bulk imports. At the peak, over 1 billion de minimis shipments were entering the United States annually, a scale that overwhelmed Customs enforcement capacity and created an asymmetric competitive advantage for sellers running direct-from-origin logistics against domestic e-commerce companies paying full duty on bulk imports.

Historical parallel. The closest historical analogue is the 1994-1997 Foreign Sales Corporation regime unwind, in which an export-tax-preference structure that had become systemically load-bearing for US exporters was challenged and ultimately dismantled under WTO pressure. The transition was brutally disruptive for firms that had built pricing models around the preference, but orderly for firms that began contingency planning within the first 60 days of the initial WTO ruling. The lesson: firms that treat the proclamation as a transient problem to route around will be in significantly worse shape than firms that rebuild their unit economics from scratch right now.

Stakeholder map. Pushing for the change: the National Council of Textile Organizations, the American Apparel and Footwear Association (partially), the Coalition for a Prosperous America, major US e-commerce players who pay full duty on bulk imports, and a coalition of CBP enforcement-focused policy groups citing drug interdiction and product safety concerns. Opposed: major cross-border fulfillment platforms, offshore 3PL operators, a subset of Shopify merchants dependent on direct-from-origin logistics, and the National Foreign Trade Council, which raised compliance and implementation concerns. Politically, the Proclamation has enjoyed unusual bipartisan support in Congress, which significantly reduces the probability of legislative reversal in 2026.

Supply chain implications. First-order effects: every D2C parcel from offshore becomes fully dutiable; MPF and HMF reapply; broker fees reapply; classification risk becomes real. Second-order effects: bulk freight demand into US ports rises, warehouse-space utilization at US 3PLs tightens, and last-mile carrier volumes shift from international air parcel toward domestic ground parcel, a change that benefits domestic parcel carriers but increases the absolute cost structure of the industry. Third-order effects: aggregator and roll-up acquirers will reprice every e-commerce deal in the pipeline downward, with D2C assets that relied on offshore DDP models potentially losing 20–40% of headline EBITDA once the margin compression flows through.

Three scenarios.

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The contrarian take. The prevailing view is that this is unambiguously bad for e-commerce margins. The contrarian take is that it may structurally improve US small-business e-commerce economics by eliminating a competitive subsidy that domestic sellers could not access. US sellers who already pay full duty on bulk inventory into US 3PLs have been competing against offshore sellers with a 15–35 point cost advantage on the import stack. The proclamation eliminates that asymmetry. If you are a domestic brand owner with US 3PL inventory, the next 12 months may actually be the best retail-price-competition environment you have faced since 2018, because your offshore competitors cannot replicate your cost structure without building the same infrastructure you already have. Plan your Q3 and Q4 marketing budget with that in mind.

Forward implication. As noted in the HS Code Watch List above, this proclamation sits at the top of the priority stack precisely because it affects every HS chapter simultaneously rather than a single product family. If you adjust only one thing in your tariff playbook this quarter, adjust your small-parcel import assumptions.

Compliance Deadlines Calendar

The compliance-deadline table below consolidates every dated obligation surfaced in this week's notices. Sort by earliest action date.

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Cross-reference: The first 13 "in force now" rows together represent more than two dozen HS chapters under active duty exposure this week, a higher single-week count than any Tariff Tracker issue published in the last 60 days.

China LATAM EU APAC Trade Monitor

China

This week's China exposure is concentrated across steel, chemicals, and finished electronics. The expedited five-year sunset review on OCTG from China (FR Doc 2026-06843) comes on top of expedited sunset reviews on MSG from China (FR Doc 2026-06928), THFA from China (FR Doc 2026-06912), and the already-scheduled NOES six-country review in which China is the largest named origin (FR Doc 2026-06576). This is not a coincidence — Commerce has been clearing its sunset docket in batches this quarter, and China-origin orders have consistently been found to warrant continuation. Separately, the ITC Section 337 complaint against display devices and streaming players (FR Doc 2026-06580) is likely to implicate Chinese contract manufacturers even though the named complainant is a US entity. Chinese retaliation channels remain limited by the current bilateral posture, but expect a reciprocal investigation announcement from MOFCOM within 30-45 days on a symbolic US agricultural export category. Supply-chain relocation patterns continue to favor Vietnam, India, and Mexico as primary alternatives; Vietnam has now become the single largest beneficiary of China+1 sourcing in durable goods, and circumvention inquiries in Vietnam should be expected in the second half of 2026.

Latin America

USMCA implications this week are mixed. On the positive side, Commerce rescinded the Large Diameter Welded Pipe administrative review on Canada (FR Doc 2026-06933), a quiet de-escalation that removes administrative overhead for Canadian pipe mills selling into the US. On the other hand, Commerce's final AD results on citric acid from Colombia (FR Doc 2026-06784) confirmed below-normal-value sales during 2023-2024, reinforcing that the Colombia citric acid route is not a safe haven for food and beverage buyers looking to escape Chinese citric acid duties. Mexico remains the most important LATAM node: the expedited sunset review of PC strand from Mexico (FR Doc 2026-07003) is likely to continue duties, reducing Mexico's attractiveness as a steel-wire substitute for Chinese material. Nearshoring narratives remain strong but should not be equated with duty-free treatment; most USMCA routings require careful content qualification to actually avoid tariff stacking.

European Union

The EU exposure is concentrated in steel and specialty metals. The expedited sunset review on NOES from Germany and Sweden (FR Doc 2026-06576) signals that European-origin specialty electrical steel will continue to carry duties, bad news for US transformer and motor OEMs already struggling with grid-infrastructure-driven NOES demand. Transatlantic trade tone remains cooperative at the WTO level but structurally competitive at the trade-remedy level. No specific EU retaliation actions surfaced this week. Look for the European Commission to respond to US steel decisions with parallel anti-dumping investigations of its own within the next 60-90 days — the EU's recent pattern is to mirror US case structure at a modest lag. Importers of German machinery and precision components should not assume the absence of EU-specific US actions this week means the category is safe; it means the docket is temporarily focused elsewhere.

Asia-Pacific

APAC is where the new-country expansion of trade cases is most visible this week. The ITC's institution of OCTG AD/CVD cases against Austria, Taiwan, and UAE (FR Doc 2026-06689) is the single most important new action, and for APAC specifically the inclusion of Taiwan is notable because Taiwanese steel producers had been a significant alternative to Korean and Japanese supply. The NOES sunset review names Japan, Korea, and Taiwan alongside China, Germany, and Sweden (FR Doc 2026-06576). The practical APAC pivot for duty-sensitive buyers is increasingly toward India, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines, although each carries its own circumvention-inquiry risk. On the positive side, the Japan preliminary AD determination on hot-rolled steel flat (FR Doc 2026-07008) rescinded review with respect to one producer — identifying that producer and routing volume through it is a near-term opportunity for service centers. New trade agreements in APAC (IPEF follow-ons, Japan-UK TPP extensions) are not delivering tariff relief for US importers in the short run and should not be built into Q3 2026 planning.

What Were Watching Next Week

Five items to put on the calendar for next week. Each has a specific date risk window and a specific preparation action.

1. Continued Federal Register flow on hot-rolled steel and OCTG comment periods (week of April 13-17). Commerce and the ITC typically continue to publish supplementary notices within 7-10 days of the main publications covered in this edition. If you import hot-rolled steel flat from Japan or Korea, watch for the comment period notices on FR Docs 2026-07008 and 2026-07001 — filing deadlines are typically 30 days from the publication date, and briefs argued in the first week often get more weight. Preparation: draft your scope-clarification argument template this week and have it ready to adapt.

2. ITC preliminary determination conference on OCTG (Austria/Taiwan/UAE). The ITC will set a date for the preliminary conference in Inv. Nos. 701-TA-791 and 731-TA-1779-1781 within a week or two of the institution notice. Preparation: if you are a US service center, manufacturer, or downstream user of OCTG, consider filing a notice of appearance and a brief questionnaire response — downstream users sometimes argue successfully that no injury exists because demand exceeds domestic supply.

3. March Trade Balance release (advance goods). FRED series BOPGSTB currently stands at -$57.35 billion for February 2026, having widened from -$54.68 billion in January. The March release in mid-April will be the first observation to capture any effective cross-border parcel volume change from the de minimis regime shift. If the goods deficit narrows meaningfully, expect it to be cited as early evidence that the policy is working. Preparation: if you run a macro-sensitive business, note that trade-policy political cover is likely to strengthen if March goods imports fall materially.

4. Import Price Index and PPI Manufacturing releases for March. With the Import Price Index at 144.0 and PPI Manufacturing at 257.34 for February, next week's March releases will set the directional tone for Q2 pricing power. A third consecutive monthly increase on Import Price Index will confirm the uptrend from Signal 2 and should cause importers to lock in Q3 prices with suppliers now, rather than waiting for the April prints. Preparation: run your Q3 gross margin scenario model against a +2% Import Price Index shock.

5. Section 337 respondent list for the InnoTV Labs investigation. The ITC typically publishes the list of named respondents within 10-15 days of institution. If you buy display devices or streaming players from any OEM in Taiwan, Vietnam, or China, watch the respondent list closely, because being downstream of a named respondent creates immediate exclusion-order exposure. Preparation: email your top five display-category vendors this week and ask them to confirm whether they have received or anticipate receiving a Section 337 complaint notification.

Bottom line: The single highest-priority agenda item is item 3 (March Trade Balance), not because it changes anyone's immediate exposure, but because it determines how much political capital is available to press the next wave of trade actions. If goods imports fall sharply, expect the trade-remedy docket to expand further in Q2.